First Major Leak discovered

After playing in the MTT I just blogged about I had some free time while waiting for my buddies, so I really started thinking about what I did wrong. This lead me to discover what I'm calling the "First Major Leak" in my game. Now I'm sure there have been others, but since I didn't get that eureka! moment, then I can't classify those. Here's what it is: I react to quickly to hands without taking the time to analyze it thoroughly which leads me to lose more of those hands than I win. There, problem found, now the part is how do I fix it.

Before I go on to how I should fix this, let me break down my 'Leak' a little more, so that I/we may better understand it.

Here are the details of 1 of the hands that hurt me the other night.

MP limps for 200, CO calls 200, BTN (me) looks down at QsTs and decide to call. SB calls and BB (aggressive player) checks. Flop brings J33 and everybody checks. Turn brings Q and BB leads out for 500. I instantly think he is stealing as that is what he had been doing to this point in the game. Everybody folds to me and I raise it to 1500 trying to see if my Q is good. He tanks which makes me think he had a J (totaly miss the fact that he was BB and could easity have a 3). He raises to 3500 and I practically insta-call. River brings a 7 and he leads out for 3000 and again I insta-call. He flips A3 for trips and I'm down 6700 chips.

As I was sitting reading one of the free poker magazines that casinos provide for their customers, I came upon an article about making decisions based on your opponents thought process and not what you would do with what you think their hand is. The situation the author referred to was that Hero made a bluff against a calling station who was holding middle pair. Hero thought that if the roles where reversed, he would lay down middle pair. But in reality, the opponent had been calling down less than nuts all game and had hero thought about that, he would have realized that a bluff would not work. So thinking like your opponent is a better way to play than thinking like yourself with your opponents hand. (hope this makes sense)

Using this new found logic, I started wondering about the hand I just described above. Would he really have 4-bet with a bluff hand? Did he think I was bluffing? Why was I so convinced he was bluffing as he hadn't shown a bluff to this point in the game? Why did I insta-call the river instead of trying to put all the pieces together? What range of hands did I have him on? The more I sat there thinking, the more I realize I missed a tonne of information that could have saved most of the chips I just lost. This all led me to discovering that because I rarely do this while playing, it should be considered a major leak in my game that needs some serious fixing.

Now re-thinking about that hand, here's some of the issues that should have came to mind while playing it out.

1. (pre-flop) looking down at QTs in the BTN is not a bad hand and I have a great position. With odds of 3.5:1 a call is almost justified, but I need to realize that if I miss the flop I'm done with the hand.
2. (flop) even though everybody checked the flop that doesn't mean my hand is any better.
3. (flop) could the blinds be slowplaying trips? since nobody raised pre-flop the blinds got in cheap with any two cards. I can't really put MP or CO on a 3, but he could have a hand like KQ, KJ, QJ, or JT along with a mid-pair and is afraid of the blinds holding a 3. Somebody could have limped in with 33 but the odds of flopping quads is very low, so that shouldn't really come into play. If that happens then there's nothing I can do about it.
4. (turn) Why would the BB bet the Q on the turn? Could he be thinking that with 3 limpers (excluding the SB) that 1 of them have either a Q or J and could get paid off with his 3? If he is holding junk would he bluff?
5. (turn) after BB bets and MP and CO fold, what range of hands do I put him on? Could he be bluffing? Should I let this go (top pr no kicker as the J on the board negates my 10) or do I re-raise to see if my hand is strong? What do I do if he fights back?
6. (turn) after I re-raise, BB re-re-raises which signifies strength. What hands can I put him on since he was in the BB in a limped pot. I should fold as everything that he is fighting back with has me beat, ie. a 3 (for trips), J3 (for a full house), QJ, or KQ has top pair better kicker. He also has to think that I have either a Q or J but not a 3 since the hands that I had played/showed down always had strength.
7. (river) with no straight or flush on board how strong is my Q high hand?
8. (river) after BB bets, think about all the action that has happened and put him on a hand. pre-flop - limp. flop - check. turn - bet then a re-raise. river - bet. This is screaming trips or better. Does my hand beat his range of hands that he would 4-bet the turn and lead out on the river? No.

If I had thought of any 1 of these last few questions I should definitely have folded, but I didn't and it cost me some chips.

So as you can see there is plenty of things to think about. I'm sure there are more, but my knowledge and experience aren't there yet to be thinking much further than this, but as I get better I'm sure more difficult ones will come into play, while making the easier ones second nature.

Now in order to fix this leak, I really need to start thinking about all these points during each and every hand. I won't be able to go through each of them every hand, as my memory is not that good yet, but I will definitely work on a few each session and eventually they will all come to mind when playing. I think if I can become better at this aspect of the game I will start seeing some good results.

Good luck at the tables.